Yellen - "Who are you calling chicken?"

Yellen - "Who are you calling chicken?  cluck, cluck, cluck"

LoL - Yellen chickens out of hike interest rate as expected. Indeed, one FOMC member appears to be expecting negative rates.  Just confirms that the Fed has no idea how to get the patient off the hopium. This party is going to have to carry on until we finally get a currency collapse. With the Yen a prospective basket case, the Euro sumberged in under a migrant invasion and the Renminbi with a credibility problem however, the US dollar remains the only game in town, at least for the moment. Good news for gold and silver for those wanting to avoid the impending train wreck.
http://wyt-i.com/wp/wp-admin/post.php?post=904&action=edit

Economists predict 2018 for the next recession – LOL

Well that's okay, according to a recent survey by Bloomberg, most economists don't think the next recession will be until 2018. As most of these are employed by banks with a vested interest to pump shares, this is most convenient, at least on two fronts. Firstly, the very low risk of an early recession is supportive of market buy recommendations. Also, the date where a recession is seen as most likely, is so far out as to pitch it beyond the normal three year forecasting horizon of the stock analysts. The means fewer embarrassing inconsistencies between the two groups to explain to compliance.

Of course for a group that couldn't forecast its way out of a paper bag, such long range forecasts are little more than PR; indeed on past performance it probably means the next recession will be anytime except for 2018.  Any quick search on the subject will provide ample evidence to the accuracy of past forecasts.

Well now we know when it won't be!

One such analysis was conducted last year by a couple of IMF researchers titled:

"Can economists forecast recessions? Some evidence from the Great Recession"

The authors are senior research officer and advisor, respectively, in the IMF's Research Department.
http://forecasters.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/PLoungani_OracleMar2014.pdf

In their study, they looked at recession predictions for the 2009 downturn at different points, with the initial date being the September prior to the year ahead. For 2009 therefore, this would have looked at forecasts that were being made as at September 2008. As one can see from the below chart, a glorious ZERO number of economists were predicting the 2009 recession at this point. While one might wish to be charitable and claim that this is a long way out, this is considerably less than the forward reach of thecurrent Bloomberg forecasts. It is also a howler in that there was very clear evidence by the end of 2008 that the wheels were already falling off the US economy. Amazingly something completely missed by these economists, although not by the market, which had been pricing the collapse in from at least a year previously.


Number of Recessions Predicted by September of the Previous Year

100% miss rate for 2009 recession just 1 year out

So what was this evidence?
No less than the US non-farm payrolls which is a very reliable indicator of corporate confidence. Reliable in that in thirty years there had never been a false negative. When month on month payrolls had contracted by over 200k, it always preceded a recession. In February of 2008 private sector payrolls had fallen by around -114k MoM and by April the monthly decline was running at over -200k per month. By September of 2008, when the economists forecasts for 2009 were taken, the monthly private sector payroll decline was over -480k! So while the data from what companies were actually doing was screaming recession, the official line as parrotted by the economists was "don't panic".

US industry had been sacking staff aggressively since Feb 2008

Expect Yellen to chicken out again on any meaningful rate rise for September

Will she or won’t she? It seems with Fed interest rate policy remaining the only game in town, strategists are stuck with trying to second guess Yellen’s next move at the forthcoming FOMC on 16-17 September. Of course we’ve been here before and we can look at all the evidence and data under the sun showing that rates should have gone up years ago and that the current ZIRP regime is counter-productive. Once again, we don’t think Yellen will raise rates, or at least not materially. Not because of the data, because most of that from the upward revision in Q2 US GDP (from +4.4% to +5.9% YoY – at nominal prices) to the fairly steady progress in employment and incomes would be supportive of an increase. Nor do we think because of slowdown scare stories out of China. Official China GDP data has been looking increasingly suspect for years and the blow-off in domestic equity prices was in large part a correction to credit fuelled speculative bubble which the Fed ought to be attempting to unwind itself. No, we don’t think she’ll raise because she doesn’t need to. Barring a brief wobble on one recent bond auction, the Fed doesn’t need to offer higher coupons to get its debt away, at least not yet. With ECB NIRP and a suitable level of political chaos being maintained globally, the US dollar remains well bid as do Treasuries, with yields easier across the maturity range. With sign that manufacturing competitiveness is already under pressure from the stronger dollar, why would Yellen want to compound the pain with an even stronger dollar while also risking snuffing out the credit fuelled consumption that is still keeping the US party going. Like Carney, she’ll talk the talk on rates, but push out the point when these are likely to impact into the year-end or beyond, if currency markets permit.

US private sector jobs +2.5%, average income +1.4% therefore total US private sector income +3.8%

So what of August’s NFP numbers? At +173k MoM overall and +140k for private sector jobs, the numbers were a little less than the >+200k estimates preceding them, although the August holidays can sometimes make the numbers a bit lumpy. On a YoY basis this represented an increase of +2.2% overall and +2.5% for private sector jobs, which after a +1.4% rise in average wages implies an approx. +3.8% YoY overall increase in US private sector gross incomes. Not a particularly rampant performance, but nor was it something out of line with what was being delivered over the previous cycle and certainly not something that would suggest the need for endless Fed life-support.

Average hours -0.5% vs Av hourly wage +1.9%

In terms of the components of this +1.4% YoY average wage increase, this included a +1.9% increase in average hourly wage which was slightly down from the approx. +2.5% being achieved earlier in the year, but a -0.5% contraction in average hours being worked. As reductions in overtime and hours worked can sometimes precede a more general contraction this will no doubt be kept under review by the Fed, although as one can see from the below chart this can also produce a number of false negatives.

Interest sensitive industries of Auto & Construction still hiring

By industry segment, the collapse in commodity prices has had an immediate and heavy impact on the associated ‘mining and logging’ employment segment (including oil) which should come as no surprise. A high US dollar has been slow to impact manufacturing employment, which is only just starting to tail off, while continued credit availability seems to continue to underpin construction and Auto related areas; notwithstanding the increasing erosion in share at the latter from international competitors. With both these areas sensitive to credit availability and rates, we would expect Yellen to be reticent in adversely impacting these.

So what does this mean for Wall Street? - More of the same, albeit perhaps with more emphasis on acquisitions and mergers than just share buybacks. For example, for the 5 year period 2010-15, the US quoted groups under our coverage converted approx. 71% of net income into FCF (vs 89% equivalent for 2002-07) and spent approx. 17% on acquisitions while returning 75% back to shareholders, with the remaining c.8% used to reduce debt.

71% of US FCF returned to shareholders in last 5 years

FCF generation and capital allocation 2002-07